Phân tích của John Lee trên ISEAS Perspective về khả năng chống đỡ của VN trước sự áp đảo về kinh tế của TQ.
Tóm tắt nội dung chính:
– Defined by geography, by the troubled history between the two countries, and by the huge asymmetry of power, Vietnam pursues a counter-dominance strategy towards China even as it adopts a softly-softly diplomatic approach to relations with its northern neighbour.
– This strategy seeks to prevent over-reliance on the far larger Chinese economy and the possibility of China economically punishing Vietnam for the latter’s policies
– While China has emerged as Vietnam’s largest trading partner by volume, and Vietnamese dependence on Chinese imports is growing, deeper analysis of the nature and structure of trade between the two countries suggests that China’s capacity to use trade to enhance its strategic leverage over Vietnam is far more restricted than is often assumed — and any attempts by Beijing to use the trading relationship for strategic gain would impose considerable costs on China.
– Likewise, Vietnamese reliance on Chinese capital in the form of foreign direct investment is narrow and limited to a small number of sectors — a condition that denies Beijing significant strategic leverage over Hanoi.
– Even so, a failing reform process in Vietnam will cause other foreign firms and external capital to lose interest in its economy. This would deliver a considerable blow to Hanoi’s attempts at balancing and mitigating the influence of China through lessening reliance on Chinese trade, investment and other forms of largesse such as concessionary loans and aid.